Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse
Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (24.04.2021)
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Volyymi
131Numero
July
2021
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202002181189Tiivistelmä
We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in BoF DP 9/2019 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201906051219