Haku

The current news on the Finnish economy is positive, and the outlook has improved. Economic growth has continued and is now more broadly based than before. Exports and corporate investment are both growing, in addition to ...

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

Talouden suhdanne heikkenee Suomessa vahvan alkuvuoden jälkeen. Energiakriisi ja inflaation kiihtyminen ovat kasvattaneet taantuman uhkaa, ja talouden arvioidaan supistuvan lievästi ensi vuonna. Suhdanteen heikkeneminen ...

The economy in Finland is weakening after a strong start to the year. The energy crisis and rising inflation have increased the risk of a recession, and the economy is expected to contract slightly in 2023. The faltering ...

Pitkään jatkunut matalan inflaation kausi on nopeasti kääntynyt tilanteeksi, jossa inflaatio on kiihtynyt ja kuluttajien ostovoima on heikentynyt. Euroalueen palkkamittarit ovat tuoreimpien tietojen mukaan osoittaneet ...

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, ...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...

The relative performance of forecasting models changes over time. This empirical observation raises two questions: is the relative performance itself predictable? If so, can it be exploited to improve forecast accuracy? ...