Haku

This paper studies the effects of demand shocks caused by Emerging Asian (EMA) countries on oil prices over the past two decades, using vector autoregression models. The analysis builds on previous work done on identifying ...

GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a ...

This paper tests whether the People's Bank of China's communication affects expectations of market participants and matters as a monetary policy instrument. For that purpose, we first rely on a computational linguistic ...

We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external ...

This study examines the financial channel between oil price volatility and the resource curse using firm-level data. A collapse in oil prices adversely affects firm borrowing in resource-dependent countries. However, unlike ...

This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation ...

This paper investigates the implementation of regionally differentiated macro-prudential policies in China. To assess the relative intensity of the city-level macro-prudential policies over time, we construct a time-varying ...

The recent increase in China’s house prices at the national level masks tremendous variation at the city level – a feature largely overlooked in the macroprudential literature. This paper considers the evolving heterogeneity ...

The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the ...

We examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in the Asia-Pacific region, where many inflation targeting economies have adopted macroprudential policies in order to safeguard financial stability. Using ...