Haku

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method – forecast combination in the frequency domain – that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and ...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated ...

Central banks prioritise price stability, but whether they dislike high and low inflation equally remains an open question. Applying a wide range of text analysis techniques, we proxy the central bank’s loss by extracting ...

I document a statistical link between old-age dependency ratios and average markups. I propose that a mechanism whereby households develop deep habits in consumption as they age could explain this feature of the data. I ...

This study investigates the role of media tone on inflation expectations. Examining the relationships between news and the inflation expectations of various U.S demographic groupings, we find that traditional news influences ...

New Keynesian models generate puzzles when confronted with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal rates, such as the forward guidance puzzle and the paradox of flexibility. We show that these puzzles are resolved when ...