Haku
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A model for predicting Finnish household loan stocks
(20.06.2022)
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts ...
Could corporate credit losses turn out higher than expected?
(18.08.2021)
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ...
Household debt, liquidity constraints and the interest rate elasticity of private consumption
(25.04.2023)
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
We study whether the level of household indebtedness is related to the interest rate elasticity of private consumption. Looking at Finnish aggregate data, we find no robust evidence of increased interest rate elasticity ...