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Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve
(08.09.2021)
BoF Economics Review 5/2021
BoF Economics Review 5/2021
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and surveybased inflation expectations, explains well ...
Banking crisis prediction with differenced relative credit
(06.06.2019)
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
Indicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different ...