Haku
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A model for predicting Finnish household loan stocks
(20.06.2022)
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
BoF Economics Review 4/2022
We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts ...
Banking crisis prediction with differenced relative credit
(06.06.2019)
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
BoF Economics Review 4/2019
Indicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different ...
Cross-border loan portfolio diversification, capital requirements, and the European Banking Union
(28.05.2019)
BoF Economics Review 3/2019
BoF Economics Review 3/2019
We provide preliminary evidence of potential risk reduction benefits from banks’ loan portfolio diversification cross-border within the Euro area. Using aggregate data on banking sector cor-porate loan losses for each Euro ...
Could corporate credit losses turn out higher than expected?
(18.08.2021)
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
BoF Economics Review 3/2021
While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ...
Household debt, liquidity constraints and the interest rate elasticity of private consumption
(25.04.2023)
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
BoF Economics Review 2/2023
We study whether the level of household indebtedness is related to the interest rate elasticity of private consumption. Looking at Finnish aggregate data, we find no robust evidence of increased interest rate elasticity ...