Haku

We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts ...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, ...

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and surveybased inflation expectations, explains well ...

Koronaviruksen taltuttamisen seurauksena talouttamme on kohdannut samanaikaisesti ennennäkemätön tarjonta-, kysyntä- ja rahoitusmarkkinahäiriö, joka leikkaa ison loven talouteemme. Talousvaikutusten arviointi edellyttää ...

Indicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different ...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse ...

While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ...