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Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables : a MIDAS approach
(13.05.2020)
BoF Economics Review 4/2020
BoF Economics Review 4/2020
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, ...
Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?
(09.04.2020)
BoF Economics Review 2/2020
BoF Economics Review 2/2020
The main problem facing policymakers during the corona virus pandemic is how to mitigate its humanitarian and economic costs. Doing so invariably involves trading off some costs against others as well as short-term against ...
Yield Curve Control
(28.05.2020)
BoF Economics Review 5/2020
BoF Economics Review 5/2020
We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial friction to break Wallace’s neutrality. We calibrate a bond supply shock that corresponds to the observed ...
Koronaviruskriisi leikkaa syvän loven Suomen talouteen
(30.04.2020)
BoF Economics Review 3/2020
BoF Economics Review 3/2020
Koronaviruksen taltuttamisen seurauksena talouttamme on kohdannut samanaikaisesti ennennäkemätön tarjonta-, kysyntä- ja rahoitusmarkkinahäiriö, joka leikkaa ison loven talouteemme. Talousvaikutusten arviointi edellyttää ...
European household and business expectations during COVID-19 : Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?
(29.07.2020)
BoF Economics Review 6/2020
BoF Economics Review 6/2020
Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of ...
Probit based time series models in recession forecasting : A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland
(11.08.2020)
BoF Economics Review 7/2020
BoF Economics Review 7/2020
This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order to estimate the recession ...
Lessons learned from the world’s first CBDC
(15.09.2020)
BoF Economics Review 8/2020
BoF Economics Review 8/2020
Central banks worldwide are currently exploring so called Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). The Avant smart card system created by the Bank of Finland in the 1990’s can be considered the world’s first CBDC and the ...
How Effective is the Taylor rule? : Some Insights from the Time-Frequency Domain
(19.02.2020)
BoF Economics Review 1/2020
BoF Economics Review 1/2020
When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the macroeconomy as a whole? This question is ...