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Bank of Finland forecast : Upswing more broadly based – Improved chances for balanced growth in Finland
(18.12.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
Finland’s economic growth is broadly based, exports are fuelling growth and at the same time domestic demand continues to be strong. According to the Bank of Finland forecast, Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% ...
Growth potential and public finances need further strengthening
(18.12.2017)
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
The current news on the Finnish economy is positive, and the outlook has improved. Economic growth has continued and is now more broadly based than before. Exports and corporate investment are both growing, in addition to ...
Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy
(11.08.2016)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2016
Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are ...
Price level targeting with evolving credibility
(23.02.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2018
We examine global dynamics under learning in a nonlinear New Keynesian model when monetary policy uses price-level targeting and compare it to inflation targeting. Domain of attraction of the targeted steady state gives a ...
Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies
(20.02.2019)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
We study the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the time and frequency domain. For this purpose, we decompose U.S. time series into various frequency components. This allows us to identify a set of stylized facts: ...
The enduring link between demography and inflation
(06.04.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018
Demographic shifts, such as population ageing, have been suggested as possible explanations for the recent decade-long spell of low inflation. We identify age structure effects on inflation from cross-country variation in ...
Extreme events and optimal monetary policy
(06.02.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2018
This paper studies the implication of extreme shocks for monetary policy. The analysis is based on a small-scale New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages where shocks are drawn from asymmetric Generalized Extreme ...
Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve : Frequency matters
(21.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation ...
High trend inflation and passive monetary detours
(26.02.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2018
According to the long-run Taylor principle (Davig and Leeper, 2007), a central bank can deviate to a passive monetary policy and still obtain equilibrium uniqueness if a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy is expected ...
Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates
(21.12.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 36/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 36/2017
Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching ...