Haku
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The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread
(03.04.2018)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. ...
Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium
(27.04.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency ...
Conditional risk and predictability of Finnish stock returns
(28.10.1992)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/1992
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/1992
This paper studies the driving forces of predictable variation in Finnish stock returns. The dynamics of Ferson and Harvey's (1991) methodology are extended and applied within the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. We find that market ...
Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors
(03.01.2017)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. ...
Frequency-domain information for active portfolio management
(09.01.2020)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2020
We assess the benefits of using frequency-domain information for active portfolio management. To do so, we forecast the bond risk premium and equity risk premium using a methodology that isolates frequencies (of the ...
Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts
(15.01.2018)
Journal of Empirical Finance January 2018
Journal of Empirical Finance January 2018
We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The ...
Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts
(28.11.2016)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2016
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2016
We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The ...
Unlocking predictive potential : the frequency-domain approach to equity premium forecasting
(31.10.2024)
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2024
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2024
This paper explores the out-of-sample forecasting performance of 25 equity premium predictors over a sample period from 1973 to 2023. While conventional time-series methods reveal that only one predictor demonstrates ...