Haku

This paper studies the formation of inflation expectations in the euro area. We first analyse the forecast accuracy of ECB inflation projections relative to private sector forecasts. Then, using the ECB Survey of Professional ...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel ...

Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a ...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and ...

Inflaatio on toipumassa koronakriisin aiheuttamasta poikkeuksellisesta heikkenemisestä. Rahapolitiikan ja hintavakauden näkökulmasta lyhyen aikavälin heilahteluja tärkeämpää on tarkastella inflaationäkymiä keskipitkällä ...

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and surveybased inflation expectations, explains well ...

Inflation is recovering from an exceptional decline caused by the COVID-19 crisis. For monetary policy and price stability, it is more important to assess inflation developments over the medium term rather than short-term ...

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample ...

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning short-term interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel ...